World oil market faces even larger 2026 surplus, IEA says
The global oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4.09 million barrels per day as Opec+ producers and rivals lift output and demand growth slows, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.
“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the IEA said in its monthly report for November.
The agency expects global oil supply to grow by around 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, and 2.5 million bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd on the month.
Global oil output was 6.2 million bpd higher in October than at the start of this year, divided evenly by Opec+ and non-Opec producers, the IEA said.
Saudi Arabia contributed 1.5 million bpd of the increase, while Russia added just 120,000 bpd amid sanctions and Ukrainian attacks.
Despite new US sanctions on Russian firms Rosneft and Lukoil, that “may have the most far-reaching impact yet on global oil markets,” Russian exports have “continued largely unabated,” the IEA said.
The agency also raised its demand growth forecasts by 80,000 bpd for 2025 and 70,000 bpd for 2026, citing increased petrochemical feedstock needs.
OPEC sees a more balanced market next year, with a surplus of just 20,000 bpd according to Reuters calculations based on its own monthly oil marker report on Wednesday.
The Paris-based watchdog also drew attention to a sharp rise in global oil inventories, which rose to their highest since July 2021 in September at just under eight billion barrels.
The increase was driven by a sharp increase in waterborne oil in storage, which rose by 80 million barrels in September.
Source: Thedgemalaysia
